The Real Economics of Dry January
the good, the bad, and the sober
Los Angeles is still fighting the wild fires and recovery is going to be a long road. I highly encourage those who can afford to, to donate directly to the GoFundMe campaigns of people and families who have been displaced by the fires. And please continue to support local restaurants! Restaurants in Asheville, NC are particularly struggling after hurricane Helene and could use some extra support, too.
The concept of Dry January, or giving up alcohol for the first month of the year, feels ubiquitous these days. It’s made its way into the every day lexicon, and I bet you know more than one person who has at least attempted to do Dry January (if not you, yourself). It’s impressive how fast the concept has become embedded in culture for something that was first coined in the UK in 2011, when a woman named Emily Robinson gave up drinking for the month of January to prepare for her first half marathon.
In 2012, she teamed up with an organization called Alcohol Change UK to share her experiences which helped kicked off a movement. But it’s the pandemic that was the catalyst for Dry January’s rapid spread across Western culture given that more people than ever were drinking excess levels of alcohol.
With the rapidly rising N/A movement (and ever expanding beverage options), I have always wondered about the impact of a well known movement like Dry January has on the hospitality industry — an industry that is quite dependent on the money made from alcohol sales due to it’s good margins. January also happens to be a notoriously tough month for restaurants and bars, which tend to be much quieter post holiday season (and this is without additional catastrophes like the floods in Asheville and the wildfires in LA).
Now that Dry January is officially over, I did a quick survey with a handful of concepts around the country to see how it affected their business, their learnings, and whether they think Dry January is here to stay.
The people I spoke to:
Ryan Bailey, Co-owner and Somm at Kato in Los Angeles
Neal Bodenheimer, Partner at Cure in New Orleans
Celia Pelligrini, Director of Ops at Este, Suerte, and Bar Toti in Austin
Arjav Ezekial, Co-owner & wine guy at Birdie’s in Austin
Sam Fore, Owner and chef of Tuk Tuk Snack Shop in Lexington, KY
Do Alcohol Sales Actually Go Down?
Most people I spoke to mentioned seeing a dip in January last year (2024). “We saw a really big dip last year, we were almost taken a back by it,” says Celia. “We had a town hall with our staff last summer and they asked what our plans were for this Dry January, so we created a game plan.” As for this year, alcohol sales are down, but only slightly. “1% in terms of percentage of total sales, not crazy but significant.”
Neal points out that the “impact in a bar [like Cure] is much more significant in a bar than a restaurant during Dry January.” In 2024, they “dipped really hard” and were down 8% in alcohol sales that month. He also attributes this to an early Mardis Gras, so people were out less.
At Birdie’s, Arjav says that alcohol says have remained steady in January this year.
In Fact Alcohol Sales, Went Up for Some
Sam says she has seen an “increase across the board” in drink sales (both alcoholic and n/a) this year.
Neal says they are up 27% in sales this year and he is hearing things from customers like “last year I did dry January, this year I am doing damp January.” He also attributes the rise in sales to a later Mardi Gras.
Celia notes that this year alcohol sales have started to pick back up in mid-January. [I have a feeling that might be tied to the general state of it all and the lunacy of this new administration.]
What Has Gone Up Is N/A Sales
Ryan says that at Kato, where they have 100 alcohol-free options available, they see a real increase in January, especially when it comes to customers ordering the N/A drink pairing flight with the tasting menu. “On average, we will see 10-15% people do a n/a pairing flight, during January we see that go up 20-30%.”
Arjav says that Birdie’s, which also has a robust n/a drink selection, has a similar experience. “What we do see is a massive spike in our NA sales which go from 1% or so of sales to closer to 4%.”
Celia says they also have seen a spike in N/A beverage sales two years in a row. “Both last year and this year N/A bev sales from Dec to Jan spiked a whole point!”
Neal says they also see a spike in January with people trying out the many n/a options at Cure. “We see increases in n/a sales in January, but we are known as a place we can get a really great n/a drink so it’s strong year round.”
Sam says she has also noticed a more diverse set of people trying out n/a options in January. “We’ve seen a significant increase in consumption of NA beers and NA cocktail options from folks outside our typical consumption demographic (pregnant women, designated drivers, older clientele).”
Alcohol Sales Also Rise Again In February
Arjav says that while they don’t necessarily see a dip in January, they see a huge spike in wine sales in the first half of February. “We see a big spike in drinking the first two weeks of February before it equalizes to the averages for the year.”
Celia says they see a similar thing, thanks in part to Valentine’s Day and that they see more customers generally. People finally start to “come out of their slumber and start defrosting in February,” she says.
Sam thinks that while certain styles of alcohol will pick up in February, people are just not drinking as much generally. “I think it’s going to pick back up with valentines and champagne specials and such but on the whole it really does seem like people are drinking less.
On How Restaurants Are Thinking About Their N/A Programs
Everyone I spoke to essentially said that investing in proper N/A options has had some significant returns.
Ryan says that at Kato, they have made N/A options a priority for their beverage program over the last three years. “We want to provide options whether it is for people who are sober or choosing to go alcohol free because they are pregnant, for health reasons, or they simply want to take a break.” And it has paid off. “We do on a nightly bases at least $1000 worth of alcohol free sales.” Inclusive options are key, he says, so that people who aren’t drinking feel just as taken care of as people who are.
Neal agrees. “You have to look at N/A drinks with the same rigor. You want the ordering experience to be seamless. You have to name N/A Drinks the same way. You have to describe them the same way on menus as regular cocktails. You want to give people the grace to order them without others asking questions.”
You need to go beyond juices and sodas to see success says Sam. “We think it’s pretty important to ensure a top notch experience whether you choose to drink or not. We want to approach our NA program with enough thought and care that it’s thought of beyond a month and becomes a potential area for growth. It means we need to think beyond a combo of simple juices while also acknowledging that that market is likely to continue to grow as the offerings become more robust.”
Putting effort into diverse sourcing is important, says Arjav. “At Birdie's the options that tend to do best are the bottles we source from the nordic countries, and single serving beverages like Sicilian blood orange soda, and the house made citrus and rosemary soda.”
Is Dry January Here To Stay?
It was a unanimous “yes” from everyone I spoke to.
“I think people are always looking for level-sets and resets,” says Neal. “I think January is a time where people are already making resolutions and Dry January is an easy one to make. It does help reframe your relationship with alcohol.”
“I think anytime people want to explore wellness — physical or mental — it's a good thing.” says Arjav. “It also forces us a restaurant to get creative, dig deeper, and find things that can fill in the gaps for people who want a varied, whimsical drinking experience that doesn't include alcohol. I do wish it was less whiplash-y though. It's strange to me that someone might be sober-curious one month and then use that as justification for going super hard the next. Our approach has always been that should approach [Dry Janaury] as an opportunity.”
Sam is also pretty pro-Dry January, but wishes that customers would understand the pricing behind a great n/a drink. “I’m here for it for the most part. My husband is sober so it makes it nice for him to have options but as a business owner the margins are definitely worse for that side of the equation. It’s hard for customers to understand that the alcohol removed spirits often cost as much as or more than their full proof counterparts.”
Ryan is very excited about the strides being made in N/A offerings. “Bit by bit the n/a space is getting better and better. I find that the Germans and Austrians are the best at dealcoholizing wine.” He has heard that the equipment to dealcoholize wine is now more widely available in the and US and is in particular hopeful about a new wave of n/a wines produced in California.
If you want some fun N/A options to try for yourself, I have a list of some of my favorites here. I was also recently sent a few bottles of Oddbird n/a wines to try out and the bubbly rosé is truly impressive and one of the best i’ve ever had.
Would love to know if you participate in Dry January in the comments!